Đánh giá hệ số lây nhiễm theo thời gian thực của Sởi

Author

HCDC - OUCRU

Published

October 15, 2024

1 Đánh giá Rt năm 2024

1.1 Bản đồ

Reading layer `ADM_ADM_2' from data source 
  `C:\Users\Admin\Desktop\measles\data\gadm41_VNM.gpkg' using driver `GPKG'
Simple feature collection with 710 features and 13 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension:     XY
Bounding box:  xmin: 102.1446 ymin: 8.381355 xmax: 109.4692 ymax: 23.39269
Geodetic CRS:  WGS 84
Figure 1.1: Bản đồ xu hướng lây nhiễm
Figure 1.2: Bản đồ xu hướng lây nhiễm

Nhận định chung:

Đến ngày 01/11 xu hướng lây nhiễm của Sởi tại các số quận/huyện như sau:

  • Huyện Bình Chánh: số ca nhiễm đang giảm Rt = 0,68 (0,41 - 1,01).

  • TP. Thủ Đức: số ca nhiễm đang tăng Rt = 0,75 (0,54 - 1,69).

  • Quận 8: số ca nhiễm đang tăng Rt = 1,19 (0,69 - 1,82).

  • Huyện Củ Chi: số ca nhiễm đang tăng Rt = 0,44 (0,21 - 0,75).

  • Quận Bình Tân: số ca nhiễm có thể tăng Rt = 1,53 (1,14 - 1,98).

  • Quận 12: số ca nhiễm ổn định Rt = 1,29 (0,77 - 1,93).

  • Quận Tân Phú: số ca nhiễm ổn định Rt = 1,16 (0,76 - 1,64).

  • Huyện Hóc Môn: số ca nhiễm có thể giảm Rt = 0,81 (0,44 - 1,28).

  • Các Quận/Huyện còn lại không ước tính được hệ số lây Rt (do không đủ dữ liệu).

Trong tuần từ 25/10 - 01/11, dựa theo giá trị và khoảng tin cậy của Rt, xu hướng lây nhiễm của Thành phố và Quận/Huyện như sau:

  • Thành phố: Rt giảm dưới 1, tuy nhiên khoảng khoảng tin cậy của Rt vẫn chứa 1, do đó số ca nhiễm ổn định.

  • Quận/Huyện: Quận Bình Tân có số ca nhiễm đang tăng với Rt lớn hơn 1 (99% khoảng tin cậy của Rt > 1 (màu tím)). Quận 12 có số ca nhiễm có thể tăng, Quận Tân Phú và Quận 8 có số ca nhiễm ổn định.

So với 1 tuần trước:

  • Quận Bình Tân tăng báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu vàng thành màu tím).

  • TP. Thủ Đức giảm báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu tím thành màu xanh).

  • Củ Chi giảm báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu cam thành màu xanh).

  • Hóc Môn giảm báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu tím thành màu vàng).

  • Quận 12 giảm báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu tím thành màu đỏ).

  • Quận 8 và Tân Phú giảm báo động về số ca nhiễm (từ màu tím thành màu cam).

  • Bình Chánh vẫn giữ nguyên về xu hướng số ca nhiễm đang giảm (màu xanh).

Phân bố nhóm tuổi theo ngày khởi phát:

  • Nhóm < 1 tuổi và 1 – 5 tuổi xuất hiện đầu tiên (khoảng tuần 21), trong đó nhóm <1 tuổi có số ca tích lũy cao nhất cho thấy đây là nhóm bị ảnh hưởng nặng nhất, nhóm 1-5 tuổi cũng xuất hiện sớm có số ca tích lũy cao đứng thứ hai.

  • Nhóm 6 – 10 tuổi bắt đầu xuất hiện từ tuần 22 và có số ca tích lũy tăng theo thời gian. Các nhóm tuổi lớn hơn xuất hiện trễ hơn nhưng số ca tích lũy tăng rất nhanh.

1.2 Thành phố

Figure 1.3: Diễn tiến Rt của Thành phố
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-11-01 0.9368478 0.8258003 1.054799 0.1405251
2024-10-31 0.9663602 0.8524563 1.087303 0.2824632
2024-10-30 0.9313557 0.8183749 1.051536 0.1255605
2024-10-29 0.9307375 0.8164697 1.052380 0.1262022
2024-10-28 0.9777277 0.8591216 1.103891 0.3537770
2024-10-27 1.0422095 0.9182051 1.173954 0.7371973
2024-10-26 1.0576674 0.9313432 1.191908 0.8057859
2024-10-25 1.1481451 1.0150267 1.289346 0.9858912
2024-10-24 1.2346208 1.0951921 1.382282 0.9996767
2024-10-23 1.2361141 1.0955534 1.385036 0.9996700
2024-10-22 1.3090872 1.1634693 1.463167 0.9999944
2024-10-21 1.3515608 1.2029309 1.508723 0.9999996
2024-10-20 1.3445436 1.1959624 1.501698 0.9999994
2024-10-19 1.3156734 1.1685903 1.471348 0.9999957
2024-10-18 1.2668460 1.1225406 1.419751 0.9999218
2024-10-17 1.2458972 1.1027286 1.397677 0.9997586
2024-10-16 1.2142986 1.0727433 1.364499 0.9988434
2024-10-15 1.2151052 1.0729371 1.365990 0.9988375
2024-10-14 1.1618098 1.0219730 1.310483 0.9889178
2024-10-13 1.1513324 1.0108319 1.300842 0.9830064
2024-10-12 1.1997945 1.0545365 1.354289 0.9970310
2024-10-11 1.1850599 1.0386774 1.340952 0.9940424
2024-10-10 1.1562100 1.0094276 1.312811 0.9818583
2024-10-09 1.2115572 1.0587378 1.374529 0.9972235
2024-10-08 1.2250201 1.0688241 1.391713 0.9981084
2024-10-07 1.2250504 1.0664051 1.394536 0.9978076
2024-10-06 1.2620040 1.0985732 1.436602 0.9994307
2024-10-05 1.3434129 1.1724943 1.525791 0.9999847
2024-10-04 1.3650191 1.1909726 1.550762 0.9999939
2024-10-03 1.4155665 1.2370144 1.605980 0.9999996
2024-10-02 1.4445146 1.2634681 1.637506 0.9999999
2024-10-01 1.4770401 1.2938392 1.672194 1.0000000
2024-09-30 1.4143461 1.2355655 1.605031 0.9999995
2024-09-29 1.3486563 1.1747861 1.534350 0.9999844
2024-09-28 1.3143483 1.1433660 1.497071 0.9999226
2024-09-27 1.2450574 1.0792711 1.422515 0.9985659
2024-09-26 1.2153852 1.0519827 1.390411 0.9957843
2024-09-25 1.1627952 1.0033271 1.333852 0.9774408
2024-09-24 1.0982126 0.9436325 1.264346 0.8873473
2024-09-23 1.0814208 0.9283843 1.245961 0.8427277
2024-09-22 1.0330650 0.8840259 1.193543 0.6545115
2024-09-21 0.9486939 0.8065340 1.102223 0.2437446
2024-09-20 0.9320832 0.7915569 1.083923 0.1799872
2024-09-19 0.9064991 0.7681183 1.056172 0.1043391
2024-09-18 0.9027946 0.7645429 1.052366 0.0958993
2024-09-17 0.9092446 0.7700051 1.059885 0.1122094
2024-09-16 0.9800724 0.8345293 1.137142 0.3887816
2024-09-15 1.0361806 0.8854161 1.198624 0.6671876
2024-09-14 1.0318069 0.8803746 1.195080 0.6458331
2024-09-13 1.0839680 0.9275852 1.252354 0.8448780
2024-09-12 1.0344217 0.8808076 1.200201 0.6556638
2024-09-11 1.0359904 0.8812183 1.203100 0.6615575
2024-09-10 1.0517963 0.8946629 1.221455 0.7273809
2024-09-09 1.0756680 0.9154507 1.248615 0.8119363
2024-09-08 1.1001787 0.9367995 1.276497 0.8781845
2024-09-07 1.1932647 1.0215953 1.378070 0.9869677
2024-09-06 1.2439972 1.0674765 1.433826 0.9972588
2024-09-05 1.2716799 1.0922031 1.464609 0.9989164
2024-09-04 1.2624424 1.0828159 1.455651 0.9984141
2024-09-03 1.2320713 1.0538205 1.424045 0.9953879
2024-09-02 1.1750214 1.0000057 1.363943 0.9750040
2024-09-01 1.1887253 1.0111353 1.380471 0.9817854
2024-08-31 1.2244210 1.0420473 1.421285 0.9928706
2024-08-30 1.2674707 1.0792482 1.470599 0.9979245
2024-08-29 1.3329422 1.1367426 1.544531 0.9997545
2024-08-28 1.3620392 1.1603729 1.579625 0.9998977
2024-08-27 1.3060369 1.1053962 1.523163 0.9990421
2024-08-26 1.3546608 1.1465502 1.579871 0.9997767
2024-08-25 1.3719575 1.1584449 1.603262 0.9998419
2024-08-24 1.3856278 1.1663630 1.623499 0.9998660
2024-08-23 1.4167949 1.1894927 1.663677 0.9999346
2024-08-22 1.5110569 1.2694730 1.773372 0.9999967
2024-08-21 1.6651266 1.4034022 1.948898 1.0000000
2024-08-20 1.8224529 1.5397564 2.128623 1.0000000
2024-08-19 1.9744948 1.6711619 2.302751 1.0000000
2024-08-18 1.9716857 1.6607344 2.308926 1.0000000
2024-08-17 1.9594799 1.6428962 2.303544 1.0000000
2024-08-16 1.8785950 1.5637259 2.221917 1.0000000
2024-08-15 1.8832873 1.5639563 2.231843 1.0000000
2024-08-14 1.8613760 1.5407101 2.211905 1.0000000
2024-08-13 1.9628306 1.6300122 2.326108 1.0000000
2024-08-12 1.8723608 1.5444668 2.231348 1.0000000
2024-08-11 1.9503164 1.6115841 2.320878 1.0000000
2024-08-10 1.9174649 1.5773883 2.290243 1.0000000
2024-08-09 1.8531819 1.5141839 2.225911 1.0000000
2024-08-08 1.7349752 1.4020366 2.102851 0.9999994
2024-08-07 1.6708897 1.3383142 2.039816 0.9999939
2024-08-06 1.5668591 1.2385371 1.933199 0.9998695
2024-08-05 1.5210260 1.1901092 1.891921 0.9994915
2024-08-04 1.5178761 1.1786902 1.899301 0.9992532
2024-08-03 1.5609494 1.2072382 1.959413 0.9995586
2024-08-02 1.6285480 1.2568789 2.047625 0.9998370
2024-08-01 1.7459449 1.3503136 2.191633 0.9999794
2024-07-31 1.8045158 1.3926872 2.268875 0.9999911
2024-07-30 1.9362016 1.5005296 2.426557 0.9999993
2024-07-29 1.9369760 1.4949172 2.435422 0.9999990
2024-07-28 1.7949755 1.3664185 2.281093 0.9999743
2024-07-27 1.7836281 1.3543836 2.271054 0.9999647
2024-07-26 1.8166544 1.3829215 2.308643 0.9999815
2024-07-25 1.8336943 1.3993019 2.325910 0.9999879
2024-07-24 1.6858469 1.2734706 2.155176 0.9998070
2024-07-23 1.5624022 1.1703465 2.010225 0.9985424
2024-07-22 1.4385766 1.0677393 1.863837 0.9912513
2024-07-21 1.2921703 0.9460311 1.691438 0.9470715
2024-07-20 1.1849010 0.8575187 1.564394 0.8485857
2024-07-19 1.0908962 0.7793522 1.454009 0.6876707
2024-07-18 0.9832908 0.6886848 1.329533 0.4376615
2024-07-17 1.0531796 0.7452925 1.413468 0.6034660
2024-07-16 0.9397398 0.6468736 1.286431 0.3377765
2024-07-15 0.8868653 0.5983643 1.231230 0.2322919
2024-07-14 1.0813103 0.7531723 1.467851 0.6553447
2024-07-13 1.0679145 0.7351032 1.461893 0.6236165
2024-07-12 1.0827221 0.7405811 1.488811 0.6496470
2024-07-11 1.0567116 0.7129588 1.467027 0.5941367
2024-07-10 1.0954606 0.7391027 1.520822 0.6666030
2024-07-09 1.2470447 0.8584082 1.707108 0.8778241
2024-07-08 1.4100115 0.9875547 1.906513 0.9708155
2024-07-07 1.5068799 1.0609825 2.029774 0.9886431
2024-07-06 1.6970173 1.2123740 2.261881 0.9987340
2024-07-05 1.8074009 1.2970221 2.401139 0.9996579
2024-07-04 1.9087164 1.3756349 2.527737 0.9999038
2024-07-03 1.8525358 1.3234787 2.469165 0.9997508
2024-07-02 1.8192053 1.2936328 2.432976 0.9995855
2024-07-01 1.7702357 1.2527242 2.375825 0.9992076
2024-06-30 1.4381603 0.9771601 1.986835 0.9675601
2024-06-29 1.2982268 0.8626623 1.821393 0.8960179
2024-06-28 1.2159565 0.7943032 1.725953 0.8157015
2024-06-27 1.4814831 1.0065959 2.046686 0.9768264
2024-06-26 1.5850933 1.0842027 2.179604 0.9908421
2024-06-25 1.5603529 1.0527635 2.166229 0.9863031
2024-06-24 1.4891559 0.9813631 2.101145 0.9695566
2024-06-23 1.5302119 0.9995852 2.172014 0.9748921
2024-06-22 1.4501564 0.9192747 2.100095 0.9459735
2024-06-21 1.4920947 0.9350878 2.177151 0.9541432
2024-06-20 1.4695019 0.8976099 2.180069 0.9383300
2024-06-19 1.6117979 0.9845280 2.391171 0.9713050
2024-06-18 1.8919961 1.1711754 2.782890 0.9948509
2024-06-17 2.1717660 1.3443574 3.194397 0.9989351
2024-06-16 2.9475657 1.8885609 4.238513 0.9999950
2024-06-15 3.9534639 2.5825338 5.611627 1.0000000
2024-06-14 5.1420781 3.3589761 7.298771 1.0000000
2024-06-13 6.2607380 3.9687708 9.066709 1.0000000

1.3 Phân bố nhóm tuổi

Figure 1.4: Phân bố nhóm tuổi theo ngày khởi phát

1.4 Quận/Huyện

1.4.1 Bình Chánh

Figure 1.5: Diễn tiến Rt của Bình Chánh
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-11-01 0.6752534 0.4065467 1.0110236 0.0283747
2024-10-31 0.7007832 0.4280566 1.0396418 0.0389955
2024-10-30 0.7265626 0.4497537 1.0686829 0.0529547
2024-10-29 0.6812391 0.4161185 1.0106473 0.0283323
2024-10-28 0.7657425 0.4854150 1.1089370 0.0796276
2024-10-27 0.7736002 0.4956602 1.1124143 0.0837405
2024-10-26 0.7422056 0.4755451 1.0672698 0.0544471
2024-10-25 0.6781371 0.4298807 0.9820682 0.0197610
2024-10-24 0.6730846 0.4312580 0.9678758 0.0160964
2024-10-23 0.5878132 0.3683794 0.8576924 0.0025421
2024-10-22 0.6392904 0.4137150 0.9131649 0.0065499
2024-10-21 0.6649294 0.4381926 0.9381913 0.0097231
2024-10-20 0.7401853 0.5029200 1.0225747 0.0342426
2024-10-19 0.7222157 0.4907106 0.9977496 0.0241927
2024-10-18 0.6858473 0.4627383 0.9521580 0.0118262
2024-10-17 0.6539999 0.4379940 0.9126184 0.0058615
2024-10-16 0.6262185 0.4161177 0.8785753 0.0030129
2024-10-15 0.6248448 0.4152048 0.8766479 0.0028898
2024-10-14 0.5832604 0.3810051 0.8278918 0.0010278
2024-10-13 0.6598180 0.4418905 0.9207373 0.0068451
2024-10-12 0.6993032 0.4718170 0.9708389 0.0160924
2024-10-11 0.8448440 0.5884648 1.1468538 0.1396545
2024-10-10 0.8588349 0.5947681 1.1706493 0.1667977
2024-10-09 1.0672749 0.7624769 1.4225250 0.6384598
2024-10-08 1.1639938 0.8353020 1.5463699 0.8147758
2024-10-07 1.3046946 0.9442140 1.7225549 0.9471843
2024-10-06 1.3633920 0.9826130 1.8055572 0.9683818
2024-10-05 1.5245127 1.1077133 2.0068380 0.9947915
2024-10-04 1.6557165 1.2076909 2.1733282 0.9989261
2024-10-03 1.7469810 1.2742599 2.2931240 0.9996279
2024-10-02 1.9134634 1.4059410 2.4979880 0.9999632
2024-10-01 1.9972824 1.4675280 2.6074120 0.9999868
2024-09-30 2.2108698 1.6409502 2.8644293 0.9999995
2024-09-29 2.1570010 1.5848832 2.8159214 0.9999981
2024-09-28 2.3267077 1.7213112 3.0219202 0.9999999
2024-09-27 2.1023604 1.5214886 2.7756926 0.9999908
2024-09-26 2.2493090 1.6406614 2.9524903 0.9999989
2024-09-25 2.0244008 1.4462616 2.6982370 0.9999588
2024-09-24 1.8729171 1.3187065 2.5228282 0.9996617
2024-09-23 1.6467341 1.1335360 2.2542518 0.9951375
2024-09-22 1.4530317 0.9803544 2.0172361 0.9688408
2024-09-21 1.2972285 0.8619989 1.8199923 0.8953419
2024-09-20 1.1827570 0.7794443 1.6688274 0.7832929
2024-09-19 1.1100210 0.7315108 1.5661995 0.6802309
2024-09-18 0.9996464 0.6530022 1.4189185 0.4731981
2024-09-17 0.8983795 0.5813838 1.2832488 0.2703742
2024-09-16 0.7734897 0.4903261 1.1201566 0.0877305
2024-09-15 0.6941689 0.4350319 1.0128785 0.0292548
2024-09-14 0.6239839 0.3862559 0.9178024 0.0078648
2024-09-13 0.6467575 0.4099888 0.9366248 0.0101625
2024-09-12 0.5356094 0.3271642 0.7945994 0.0007214
2024-09-11 0.4882038 0.2939306 0.7309633 0.0001475
2024-09-10 0.4223814 0.2460527 0.6455726 0.0000122
2024-09-09 0.4597403 0.2767937 0.6883464 0.0000375
2024-09-08 0.4502597 0.2710858 0.6741516 0.0000225
2024-09-07 0.4426997 0.2665341 0.6628324 0.0000147
2024-09-06 0.5283172 0.3349078 0.7651012 0.0002427
2024-09-05 0.5448392 0.3490888 0.7834628 0.0003711
2024-09-04 0.5628032 0.3642165 0.8039102 0.0005951
2024-09-03 0.6282767 0.4174853 0.8814628 0.0032055
2024-09-02 0.6307517 0.4191299 0.8849352 0.0034504
2024-09-01 0.6847086 0.4619700 0.9505772 0.0115106
2024-08-31 0.7710211 0.5307355 1.0554684 0.0528083
2024-08-30 0.9181632 0.6497469 1.2322626 0.2783891
2024-08-29 1.0080999 0.7202013 1.3436531 0.4992748
2024-08-28 1.1108980 0.8006376 1.4711763 0.7316882
2024-08-27 1.1428869 0.8201553 1.5183293 0.7834546
2024-08-26 1.2386301 0.8926956 1.6403334 0.9009221
2024-08-25 1.3491838 0.9764110 1.7812928 0.9655113
2024-08-24 1.4815761 1.0765155 1.9503171 0.9917026
2024-08-23 1.5719466 1.1376256 2.0754008 0.9965921
2024-08-22 1.7692699 1.2855542 2.3290314 0.9996682
2024-08-21 2.0146542 1.4695026 2.6444775 0.9999838
2024-08-20 2.4120564 1.7784600 3.1407003 0.9999999
2024-08-19 2.9340351 2.1912777 3.7835275 1.0000000
2024-08-18 3.1338591 2.3260106 4.0602654 1.0000000
2024-08-17 3.1974464 2.3493634 4.1742019 1.0000000
2024-08-16 2.9302823 2.1028212 3.8928906 1.0000000
2024-08-15 2.9001193 2.0718878 3.8654446 1.0000000
2024-08-14 2.7147195 1.9210971 3.6434127 0.9999999
2024-08-13 2.6958333 1.9170010 3.6053638 0.9999999
2024-08-12 2.3915097 1.6749840 3.2336219 0.9999968
2024-08-11 2.3030768 1.6130467 3.1140495 0.9999928
2024-08-10 2.1106311 1.4616734 2.8769311 0.9999317
2024-08-09 1.8868239 1.2820053 2.6066695 0.9991397
2024-08-08 1.6902606 1.1231659 2.3714104 0.9935909
2024-08-07 1.4539247 0.9315570 2.0907009 0.9511265
2024-08-06 1.2301484 0.7514066 1.8249777 0.7937718
2024-08-05 0.9472183 0.5301509 1.4833199 0.3829505
2024-08-04 0.9166294 0.5011298 1.4555025 0.3375726
2024-08-03 0.7523871 0.3755889 1.2578788 0.1381281
2024-08-02 0.8612720 0.4450318 1.4126324 0.2657427
2024-08-01 0.9801068 0.5218656 1.5803532 0.4344116
2024-07-31 1.0271898 0.5469353 1.6562713 0.5013867
2024-07-30 1.2350816 0.6912658 1.9341067 0.7587533
2024-07-29 1.5303121 0.9069599 2.3140569 0.9456972
2024-07-28 1.3877308 0.7932081 2.1457978 0.8764198
2024-07-27 1.4847594 0.8649271 2.2693236 0.9258592
2024-07-26 1.5650275 0.9275345 2.3665517 0.9542069
2024-07-25 1.6317131 0.9823979 2.4430834 0.9708901
2024-07-24 1.6906266 1.0326787 2.5081167 0.9813312
2024-07-23 1.4980022 0.8878111 2.2651997 0.9364183
2024-07-22 1.3966901 0.8136234 2.1347173 0.8891240
2024-07-21 1.3036553 0.7451517 2.0157949 0.8239753
2024-07-20 1.3826289 0.8054323 2.1132260 0.8818810
2024-07-19 1.2284131 0.6875335 1.9236639 0.7526173
2024-07-18 1.0833540 0.5768404 1.7468320 0.5759914
2024-07-17 1.2862923 0.7199280 2.0143012 0.8017583
2024-07-16 1.0695878 0.5526716 1.7543056 0.5531089
2024-07-15 0.8396092 0.3839228 1.4705465 0.2578678
2024-07-14 1.1737019 0.6064689 1.9250705 0.6710282
2024-07-13 1.2242060 0.6325651 2.0079058 0.7190281
2024-07-12 1.3668571 0.7277939 2.2039609 0.8355106
2024-07-11 1.2801016 0.6614472 2.0995840 0.7652650
2024-07-10 1.2806016 0.6617055 2.1004041 0.7656473
2024-07-09 1.2718364 0.6571764 2.0860278 0.7588680
2024-07-08 1.4763563 0.8071377 2.3442847 0.8991936
2024-07-07 1.4829152 0.8107235 2.3546994 0.9017452
2024-07-06 1.4015279 0.7462546 2.2598651 0.8548097
2024-07-05 1.5563275 0.8508587 2.4712697 0.9263739
2024-07-04 1.7377152 0.9725860 2.7212181 0.9692706
2024-07-03 1.5828471 0.8427994 2.5522296 0.9253990
2024-07-02 1.6780162 0.8934730 2.7056831 0.9476075
2024-07-01 1.7999508 0.9583980 2.9022940 0.9666614
2024-06-30 1.5119036 0.7250166 2.5830576 0.8673726
2024-06-29 1.3559383 0.5853979 2.4445322 0.7576325
2024-06-28 1.3792333 0.5545233 2.5731517 0.7510945
2024-06-27 2.4002474 1.1510119 4.1007755 0.9894295
2024-06-26 3.4041513 1.6993401 5.6912323 0.9994618
2024-06-25 5.1087132 2.6397467 8.3791575 0.9999932

1.4.2 Bình Tân

Figure 1.6: Diễn tiến Rt của Bình Tân
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-10-31 1.5309899 1.1399225 1.978843 0.9973808
2024-10-30 1.4448777 1.0616418 1.886259 0.9900255
2024-10-29 1.4686902 1.0791383 1.917345 0.9923774
2024-10-28 1.3854158 1.0066452 1.823734 0.9772233
2024-10-27 1.4144645 1.0317201 1.856656 0.9841438
2024-10-26 1.3372951 0.9678071 1.765596 0.9612912
2024-10-25 1.3134669 0.9505625 1.734137 0.9513786
2024-10-24 1.2841962 0.9293792 1.695491 0.9360885
2024-10-23 1.2250592 0.8829149 1.622361 0.8888021
2024-10-22 1.1991212 0.8642211 1.588011 0.8621553
2024-10-21 1.1229040 0.8022191 1.496671 0.7472958
2024-10-20 1.0547422 0.7463984 1.415565 0.6069213
2024-10-19 0.9934250 0.6957826 1.343236 0.4620836
2024-10-18 0.9096817 0.6261831 1.245284 0.2708970
2024-10-17 0.9674356 0.6738543 1.313269 0.4000672
2024-10-16 0.9172424 0.6313875 1.255634 0.2873550
2024-10-15 0.8685252 0.5901208 1.199878 0.1940966
2024-10-14 0.8493993 0.5730862 1.179216 0.1637707
2024-10-13 0.8325426 0.5575669 1.161764 0.1402920
2024-10-12 0.8769589 0.5916805 1.217477 0.2131770
2024-10-11 1.0465906 0.7289887 1.420720 0.5834718
2024-10-10 1.0133806 0.6975646 1.387240 0.5072028
2024-10-09 1.1058180 0.7702428 1.501119 0.7013949
2024-10-08 1.2337170 0.8730515 1.655766 0.8841378
2024-10-07 1.2620287 0.8930867 1.693763 0.9075684
2024-10-06 1.2483926 0.8789836 1.681591 0.8935430
2024-10-05 1.3266913 0.9434072 1.774296 0.9485961
2024-10-04 1.2605337 0.8875321 1.697945 0.9032368
2024-10-03 1.2565285 0.8847120 1.692550 0.9001268
2024-10-02 1.2159421 0.8516309 1.644107 0.8598488
2024-10-01 1.2429206 0.8751308 1.674220 0.8889084
2024-09-30 1.2381055 0.8717405 1.667734 0.8846888
2024-09-29 1.2693799 0.8982888 1.703629 0.9129354
2024-09-28 1.3025568 0.9262453 1.742018 0.9365678
2024-09-27 1.1352998 0.7862281 1.547489 0.7475537
2024-09-26 1.1661531 0.8122683 1.583022 0.7966093
2024-09-25 1.0273597 0.6980410 1.419310 0.5356835
2024-09-24 0.9529363 0.6381964 1.329767 0.3731940
2024-09-23 1.0081354 0.6849791 1.392751 0.4940550
2024-09-22 0.9334207 0.6251265 1.302534 0.3310795
2024-09-21 0.8938036 0.5939260 1.253993 0.2521154
2024-09-20 0.9532027 0.6431218 1.323326 0.3724821
2024-09-19 0.9214898 0.6171362 1.285885 0.3057563
2024-09-18 0.9902474 0.6728251 1.368038 0.4544122
2024-09-17 1.0649983 0.7330958 1.457900 0.6177698
2024-09-16 1.0475997 0.7165574 1.440516 0.5799770
2024-09-15 1.0322358 0.7013542 1.426046 0.5460347
2024-09-14 0.9835010 0.6586661 1.372418 0.4397105
2024-09-13 1.0367352 0.6994809 1.439294 0.5538251
2024-09-12 1.0213144 0.6839903 1.425184 0.5203853
2024-09-11 1.1125204 0.7559037 1.536960 0.6994715
2024-09-10 1.1332780 0.7700074 1.565637 0.7329823
2024-09-09 1.1533383 0.7836374 1.593350 0.7627731
2024-09-08 1.1716212 0.7960597 1.618608 0.7877138
2024-09-07 1.3015613 0.9013691 1.774115 0.9212886
2024-09-06 1.3129038 0.9092241 1.789575 0.9278715
2024-09-05 1.3175225 0.9124227 1.795871 0.9304077
2024-09-04 1.2760427 0.8783691 1.746804 0.9008613
2024-09-03 1.2283383 0.8401825 1.689043 0.8565434
2024-09-02 1.1768881 0.7996384 1.625885 0.7945131
2024-09-01 1.1995785 0.8205108 1.649496 0.8262002
2024-08-31 1.1108797 0.7495059 1.542228 0.6930789
2024-08-30 1.0992750 0.7416762 1.526118 0.6732834
2024-08-29 1.0907704 0.7359382 1.514311 0.6582730
2024-08-28 1.0500582 0.7032405 1.465294 0.5787591
2024-08-27 0.9780494 0.6445407 1.379992 0.4286372
2024-08-26 1.0200456 0.6778129 1.431109 0.5165613
2024-08-25 1.1051826 0.7456621 1.534319 0.6834607
2024-08-24 0.9363070 0.6059285 1.337425 0.3449210
2024-08-23 0.8801911 0.5579656 1.274680 0.2437948
2024-08-22 1.0218832 0.6675280 1.450482 0.5177208
2024-08-21 1.0957620 0.7221141 1.546081 0.6566620
2024-08-20 1.0957811 0.7158006 1.555374 0.6530147
2024-08-19 1.2322094 0.8187942 1.728771 0.8422302
2024-08-18 1.2001465 0.7839755 1.703512 0.7985489
2024-08-17 1.3597691 0.9035567 1.907736 0.9308837
2024-08-16 1.4327060 0.9520228 2.010065 0.9582151
2024-08-15 1.5639733 1.0474175 2.182433 0.9852767
2024-08-14 1.7048628 1.1502638 2.366852 0.9956090
2024-08-13 1.8562907 1.2612594 2.564487 0.9988940
2024-08-12 1.7049114 1.1235474 2.405568 0.9934198
2024-08-11 1.8684155 1.2415486 2.621359 0.9983065
2024-08-10 2.0529046 1.3748624 2.864708 0.9996563
2024-08-09 2.1902755 1.4668619 3.056401 0.9998788
2024-08-08 2.1100038 1.3783246 2.994983 0.9995470
2024-08-07 2.4598776 1.6345708 3.451172 0.9999772
2024-08-06 2.4887276 1.6257195 3.532551 0.9999639
2024-08-05 2.4087947 1.5269692 3.488381 0.9998442
2024-08-04 2.6385122 1.6725904 3.821055 0.9999582
2024-08-03 2.7586481 1.7288301 4.025210 0.9999681
2024-08-02 2.7272594 1.6658809 4.046006 0.9999175
2024-08-01 2.9428004 1.7975389 4.365770 0.9999703
2024-07-31 2.8285859 1.6763993 4.277238 0.9998828
2024-07-30 2.8180748 1.6416324 4.307178 0.9998140
2024-07-29 3.1054773 1.8405027 4.695938 0.9999631
2024-07-28 2.8330840 1.6193523 4.380695 0.9997330
2024-07-27 2.8638812 1.6369556 4.428316 0.9997625
2024-07-26 2.6655084 1.4918648 4.174119 0.9992486
2024-07-25 2.5897294 1.4494519 4.055451 0.9990031
2024-07-24 1.8030889 0.9000955 3.014495 0.9530817
2024-07-23 1.6776519 0.8374778 2.804783 0.9299455
2024-07-22 1.5405624 0.7690432 2.575590 0.8912255
2024-07-21 1.2811293 0.6143513 2.188784 0.7404313
2024-07-20 0.9425914 0.4069441 1.699336 0.3872502
2024-07-19 0.8781065 0.3791040 1.583081 0.3111140
2024-07-18 0.6244646 0.2291675 1.214410 0.0834368
2024-07-17 0.7044908 0.2832418 1.314326 0.1342124
2024-07-16 0.7935475 0.3425975 1.430635 0.2129852
2024-07-15 0.5965204 0.2189125 1.160066 0.0649110
2024-07-14 0.6061046 0.2224297 1.178705 0.0709937
2024-07-13 0.6225377 0.2284604 1.210663 0.0820833
2024-07-12 0.6453998 0.2368503 1.255123 0.0988321
2024-07-11 0.5631107 0.1828405 1.153430 0.0591767
2024-07-10 0.5970099 0.1938475 1.222866 0.0800788
2024-07-09 0.7723952 0.2834554 1.502094 0.2134195
2024-07-08 0.9928292 0.3991688 1.852261 0.4422053
2024-07-07 1.2830472 0.5539287 2.313122 0.7110198
2024-07-06 1.8660176 0.8948280 3.188054 0.9532100
2024-07-05 2.4569309 1.2264911 4.107621 0.9935664
2024-07-04 3.2905511 1.7002758 5.397063 0.9995854
2024-07-03 4.1210477 2.1294055 6.759218 0.9999459
2024-07-02 4.7936915 2.3929935 8.014336 0.9999711
2024-07-01 6.6793537 3.4513195 10.955275 0.9999995
2024-06-30 7.8349211 3.9111644 13.098817 0.9999997
2024-06-29 9.1222464 4.3744717 15.585179 0.9999997
2024-06-28 11.7243689 5.6222906 20.030854 1.0000000
2024-06-27 16.7042148 8.3386838 27.926951 1.0000000

1.4.3 TP. Thủ Đức

Figure 1.7: Diễn tiến Rt của TP. Thủ Đức
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-11-01 0.7503493 0.5407858 0.9936970 0.0224772
2024-10-31 0.7497304 0.5380195 0.9960196 0.0234002
2024-10-30 0.7717530 0.5538233 1.0252766 0.0371514
2024-10-29 0.6824672 0.4753634 0.9264315 0.0067895
2024-10-28 0.8334648 0.5981088 1.1072610 0.1048837
2024-10-27 1.0227099 0.7540655 1.3316543 0.5425154
2024-10-26 1.1422204 0.8504581 1.4763483 0.8110674
2024-10-25 1.3642248 1.0359131 1.7370371 0.9862430
2024-10-24 1.6214080 1.2539969 2.0353053 0.9998356
2024-10-23 1.5246494 1.1634681 1.9339086 0.9986858
2024-10-22 1.5580774 1.1889772 1.9763096 0.9991956
2024-10-21 1.6001633 1.2239981 2.0259613 0.9996116
2024-10-20 1.5507988 1.1805399 1.9707879 0.9990191
2024-10-19 1.5494994 1.1795508 1.9691367 0.9990004
2024-10-18 1.5524177 1.1817723 1.9728453 0.9990418
2024-10-17 1.5400904 1.1694552 1.9609629 0.9987484
2024-10-16 1.5429016 1.1685786 1.9684354 0.9986851
2024-10-15 1.5906559 1.2047472 2.0293604 0.9993297
2024-10-14 1.5417162 1.1548512 1.9836093 0.9980880
2024-10-13 1.4696323 1.0835908 1.9135848 0.9929979
2024-10-12 1.5261241 1.1213386 1.9923243 0.9960616
2024-10-11 1.4532889 1.0474028 1.9246088 0.9870514
2024-10-10 1.2556336 0.8695628 1.7115124 0.8888838
2024-10-09 1.4557009 1.0249478 1.9608360 0.9818325
2024-10-08 1.5853316 1.1218750 2.1276662 0.9950906
2024-10-07 1.5384898 1.0716145 2.0884600 0.9898254
2024-10-06 1.7935896 1.2754175 2.3987176 0.9994614
2024-10-05 2.0544377 1.4868068 2.7124215 0.9999843
2024-10-04 2.0699575 1.4918433 2.7412709 0.9999835
2024-10-03 2.0182373 1.4418583 2.6900219 0.9999560
2024-10-02 2.0492229 1.4639949 2.7313213 0.9999682
2024-10-01 2.1670346 1.5618079 2.8698313 0.9999943
2024-09-30 1.9106543 1.3452770 2.5736604 0.9997656
2024-09-29 1.7523634 1.2135626 2.3885883 0.9983168
2024-09-28 1.6999561 1.1701715 2.3271086 0.9969318
2024-09-27 1.5527460 1.0476312 2.1556689 0.9854695
2024-09-26 1.4156011 0.9328900 1.9973620 0.9496210
2024-09-25 1.2870860 0.8246603 1.8507918 0.8680141
2024-09-24 1.2736052 0.8073564 1.8444164 0.8517680
2024-09-23 1.4970055 0.9778937 2.1248803 0.9685796
2024-09-22 1.4407375 0.9231077 2.0717381 0.9469861
2024-09-21 1.1863444 0.7142568 1.7762548 0.7410542
2024-09-20 1.2255162 0.7378408 1.8349049 0.7821803
2024-09-19 1.3866558 0.8583618 2.0395975 0.9108481
2024-09-18 1.2740439 0.7670577 1.9075629 0.8255513
2024-09-17 1.2880097 0.7754660 1.9284732 0.8365800
2024-09-16 1.3021760 0.7839950 1.9496837 0.8471439
2024-09-15 1.4606935 0.9041923 2.1484977 0.9404288
2024-09-14 1.5628184 0.9794100 2.2803461 0.9696569
2024-09-13 1.5351062 0.9502549 2.2579495 0.9606323
2024-09-12 1.6689736 1.0459369 2.4352397 0.9838181
2024-09-11 1.7484519 1.0957455 2.5512083 0.9899287
2024-09-10 1.6827906 1.0278922 2.4964917 0.9805143
2024-09-09 1.6220762 0.9613452 2.4528177 0.9654486
2024-09-08 1.5643080 0.8941372 2.4188326 0.9428797
2024-09-07 1.6154328 0.9041455 2.5297270 0.9485407
2024-09-06 1.8135255 1.0150165 2.8399351 0.9776676
2024-09-05 2.0857527 1.1673799 3.2662360 0.9927869
2024-09-04 2.9664098 1.7580825 4.4856478 0.9999346
2024-09-03 3.0359004 1.6991704 4.7541433 0.9998002
2024-09-02 4.1402360 2.3665026 6.4018966 0.9999968
2024-09-01 5.1867410 2.9029796 8.1223054 0.9999996

1.4.4 Hóc Môn

Figure 1.8: Diễn tiến Rt của Hóc Môn
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-10-31 0.8079226 0.4416988 1.282889 0.1800797
2024-10-30 0.7340338 0.3792860 1.203940 0.1106511
2024-10-29 0.8486013 0.4518444 1.368310 0.2420017
2024-10-28 1.1216034 0.6410932 1.734295 0.6428897
2024-10-27 1.2115059 0.6924803 1.873307 0.7450365
2024-10-26 1.3958978 0.8131619 2.133506 0.8887270
2024-10-25 1.7797640 1.0871261 2.640356 0.9885375
2024-10-24 2.1046567 1.3189772 3.070955 0.9987826
2024-10-23 2.1236846 1.3145942 3.123675 0.9986086
2024-10-22 2.4003363 1.5216073 3.476132 0.9998363
2024-10-21 2.4121638 1.5291049 3.493260 0.9998472
2024-10-20 2.3690762 1.5017911 3.430862 0.9998034
2024-10-19 1.9945643 1.2183317 2.959021 0.9964427
2024-10-18 1.8277282 1.1004118 2.736567 0.9895316
2024-10-17 1.6793034 0.9952616 2.539354 0.9739871
2024-10-16 1.7384870 1.0466827 2.602951 0.9833196
2024-10-15 1.6362164 0.9697255 2.474200 0.9677860
2024-10-14 1.3694410 0.7664657 2.144510 0.8574145
2024-10-13 1.3846157 0.7749589 2.168273 0.8658919
2024-10-12 1.3094126 0.7158680 2.079197 0.8089953
2024-10-11 0.9466855 0.4539725 1.617393 0.3897300
2024-10-10 0.9564638 0.4586616 1.634100 0.4024257
2024-10-09 0.9662304 0.4633450 1.650786 0.4150358
2024-10-08 0.6855432 0.2756239 1.278976 0.1173951
2024-10-07 0.7996763 0.3452434 1.441684 0.2198562
2024-10-06 1.0293872 0.4936312 1.758688 0.4941160
2024-10-05 1.1746904 0.5864012 1.963907 0.6620383
2024-10-04 1.4427278 0.7681918 2.326297 0.8749928
2024-10-03 1.4895855 0.7931415 2.401852 0.8947094
2024-10-02 1.4000627 0.7234328 2.296341 0.8425389
2024-10-01 1.5188138 0.8087044 2.448980 0.9054555
2024-09-30 1.3845235 0.7154035 2.270854 0.8340500
2024-09-29 1.2433591 0.6206804 2.078711 0.7239689
2024-09-28 1.2148573 0.6064524 2.031060 0.6994992
2024-09-27 1.1864725 0.5922828 1.983605 0.6733914
2024-09-26 0.9461649 0.4326469 1.657175 0.3903367
2024-09-25 1.3238835 0.7049122 2.134669 0.8083396
2024-09-24 1.3667609 0.7472209 2.170260 0.8460943
2024-09-23 1.1097017 0.5733991 1.820099 0.6014932
2024-09-22 0.9547953 0.4766304 1.596275 0.3993845
2024-09-21 0.8127941 0.3897663 1.388643 0.2169028
2024-09-20 0.6125536 0.2644572 1.104333 0.0523607
2024-09-19 0.5847006 0.2524322 1.054118 0.0376060
2024-09-18 0.5677203 0.2451013 1.023506 0.0300651
2024-09-17 0.6308897 0.2884829 1.104982 0.0544190
2024-09-16 0.7024538 0.3368539 1.200128 0.0986966
2024-09-15 0.7111975 0.3410469 1.215067 0.1065524
2024-09-14 0.7250097 0.3476703 1.238665 0.1195716
2024-09-13 0.8176096 0.4081478 1.366921 0.2147529
2024-09-12 0.8442030 0.4214231 1.411381 0.2491113
2024-09-11 0.5604801 0.2253421 1.045654 0.0347794
2024-09-10 0.6775536 0.2925196 1.221517 0.0982720
2024-09-09 0.9101181 0.4364370 1.554919 0.3418595
2024-09-08 1.0925776 0.5454108 1.826626 0.5745411
2024-09-07 1.5367543 0.8401579 2.440190 0.9204663
2024-09-06 1.9552333 1.1175848 3.023306 0.9899783
2024-09-05 2.3147349 1.3484184 3.537868 0.9984190
2024-09-04 2.5665281 1.4950972 3.922711 0.9994709
2024-09-03 2.4916709 1.3945693 3.901894 0.9985544
2024-09-02 2.5427744 1.3901584 4.037634 0.9982988
2024-09-01 2.9756168 1.6654302 4.659741 0.9997537
2024-08-31 3.2695729 1.8299552 5.120069 0.9999092
2024-08-30 3.6394618 2.0369791 5.699305 0.9999721
2024-08-29 4.1272246 2.3099763 6.463129 0.9999934
2024-08-28 5.1085666 2.9199872 7.899191 0.9999998
2024-08-27 5.3304517 2.9142076 8.464147 0.9999993
2024-08-26 6.0969917 3.2463913 9.830970 0.9999996
2024-08-25 6.6043430 3.2968643 11.041474 0.9999985

1.4.5 Quận 8

Figure 1.9: Diễn tiến Rt của Quận 8
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-11-01 1.1887486 0.6924898 1.8168971 0.7293505
2024-10-31 1.0169830 0.5559940 1.6148524 0.4894196
2024-10-30 0.8351702 0.4169139 1.3962797 0.2372909
2024-10-29 0.9544360 0.4931710 1.5654372 0.3978758
2024-10-28 0.9170482 0.4577871 1.5331675 0.3477530
2024-10-27 0.9625899 0.4805214 1.6093064 0.4099552
2024-10-26 1.1987335 0.6382751 1.9328734 0.7055565
2024-10-25 1.2714868 0.6770132 2.0501830 0.7698399
2024-10-24 1.4650141 0.8009368 2.3262745 0.8946308
2024-10-23 1.6957059 0.9490737 2.6554327 0.9633140
2024-10-22 2.0952614 1.2205670 3.2024219 0.9957396
2024-10-21 2.5693098 1.5468924 3.8469005 0.9997445
2024-10-20 2.6714997 1.5833000 4.0397004 0.9997682
2024-10-19 2.7456184 1.5994239 4.1964350 0.9997499
2024-10-18 2.4160267 1.3208643 3.8363736 0.9973186
2024-10-17 2.5180774 1.3766564 3.9984185 0.9981426
2024-10-16 2.7426810 1.5350578 4.2949692 0.9994342
2024-10-15 2.3732518 1.2636566 3.8267015 0.9956929
2024-10-14 2.3516920 1.2521769 3.7919378 0.9953635
2024-10-13 2.3354517 1.2435297 3.7657515 0.9950979
2024-10-12 2.1590418 1.1156084 3.5411953 0.9881600
2024-10-11 2.1845190 1.1287728 3.5829823 0.9891085
2024-10-10 2.0423481 1.0195328 3.4145009 0.9778526
2024-10-09 2.0890843 1.0428633 3.4926367 0.9808185
2024-10-08 1.9357716 0.9282777 3.3072277 0.9617488
2024-10-07 1.3673180 0.5497327 2.5509219 0.7445077
2024-10-06 1.3586042 0.5462294 2.5346652 0.7395849
2024-10-05 1.1364370 0.4170523 2.2100540 0.5670138
2024-10-04 0.9087985 0.2950844 1.8615081 0.3572423
2024-10-03 0.8613398 0.2796747 1.7642975 0.3120179
2024-10-02 0.9725953 0.3569253 1.8914276 0.4189209
2024-10-01 1.0641957 0.4278619 1.9854052 0.5143196
2024-09-30 0.9968898 0.4008014 1.8598367 0.4464621
2024-09-29 0.9339348 0.3754902 1.7423854 0.3788154
2024-09-28 0.7512125 0.2756817 1.4608995 0.1924217
2024-09-27 0.8254533 0.3318750 1.5399979 0.2582954
2024-09-26 0.7816098 0.3142477 1.4582018 0.2108297
2024-09-25 0.6381671 0.2341961 1.2410577 0.0933733
2024-09-24 0.5095550 0.1654511 1.0437305 0.0330062
2024-09-23 0.4912216 0.1594983 1.0061778 0.0260478
2024-09-22 0.4770887 0.1549094 0.9772293 0.0213710
2024-09-21 0.4678101 0.1518967 0.9582237 0.0186178
2024-09-20 0.6494753 0.2611228 1.2116866 0.0882127
2024-09-19 0.6515820 0.2619698 1.2156170 0.0898071
2024-09-18 0.5660621 0.2077348 1.1008335 0.0475400
2024-09-17 0.4816433 0.1563883 0.9865585 0.0228138
2024-09-16 0.7898722 0.3410107 1.4240087 0.2088920
2024-09-15 0.9113621 0.4167328 1.5962193 0.3470311
2024-09-14 0.9334439 0.4268300 1.6348947 0.3745687
2024-09-13 0.9547724 0.4365827 1.6722508 0.4009489
2024-09-12 0.9775274 0.4469878 1.7121055 0.4287216
2024-09-11 1.1178510 0.5360530 1.9098264 0.5945574
2024-09-10 1.1622213 0.5573303 1.9856322 0.6394011
2024-09-09 1.3479776 0.6729056 2.2536171 0.7996544
2024-09-08 1.7063677 0.9085689 2.7513978 0.9528435
2024-09-07 1.8557355 0.9881010 2.9922428 0.9728601
2024-09-06 1.7305160 0.8638674 2.8931642 0.9408584
2024-09-05 2.2795743 1.2137773 3.6756532 0.9940551
2024-09-04 2.3708522 1.2250539 3.8886003 0.9940212
2024-09-03 2.7054171 1.3979285 4.4373437 0.9978581
2024-09-02 2.6172512 1.2550737 4.4715222 0.9939858
2024-09-01 2.7996442 1.2801756 4.9034801 0.9941207
2024-08-31 4.1944811 2.0938698 7.0125455 0.9999066
2024-08-30 4.8569593 2.3291008 8.2980195 0.9999410
2024-08-29 7.1153903 3.5519772 11.8958692 0.9999993

1.4.6 Củ Chi

Figure 1.10: Diễn tiến Rt của Củ Chi
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-10-31 0.4368240 0.2094741 0.7463052 0.0008626
2024-10-30 0.3745508 0.1712685 0.6560127 0.0001476
2024-10-29 0.3580519 0.1637241 0.6271156 0.0000687
2024-10-28 0.4582532 0.2367861 0.7516130 0.0006994
2024-10-27 0.4789329 0.2550116 0.7722456 0.0009339
2024-10-26 0.4648694 0.2475234 0.7495692 0.0005763
2024-10-25 0.4544810 0.2419920 0.7328186 0.0003933
2024-10-24 0.5168865 0.2892974 0.8094311 0.0015797
2024-10-23 0.5824998 0.3393276 0.8902994 0.0057790
2024-10-22 0.5843675 0.3404156 0.8931541 0.0060457
2024-10-21 0.6607123 0.3977920 0.9892519 0.0219986
2024-10-20 0.6733755 0.4054160 1.0082118 0.0274847
2024-10-19 0.7634005 0.4725569 1.1228668 0.0858843
2024-10-18 0.8251391 0.5171103 1.2039804 0.1583383
2024-10-17 0.8955300 0.5676892 1.2968935 0.2715906
2024-10-16 0.9772502 0.6261426 1.4052569 0.4281248
2024-10-15 1.1171102 0.7297335 1.5856490 0.6873806
2024-10-14 1.1908292 0.7778891 1.6902873 0.7878580
2024-10-13 1.4306880 0.9581542 1.9964411 0.9604975
2024-10-12 1.5552548 1.0415785 2.1702666 0.9842767
2024-10-11 1.7602907 1.1876607 2.4438020 0.9971752
2024-10-10 2.1237954 1.4619230 2.9073119 0.9999229
2024-10-09 2.2534529 1.5413601 3.0986404 0.9999666
2024-10-08 2.3700590 1.6103401 3.2742644 0.9999826
2024-10-07 2.4568007 1.6575931 3.4107631 0.9999878
2024-10-06 2.5837090 1.7432176 3.5869491 0.9999952
2024-10-05 2.4830184 1.6499477 3.4836378 0.9999806
2024-10-04 2.5936344 1.7369977 3.6192644 0.9999937
2024-10-03 2.4817006 1.6490720 3.4817889 0.9999804
2024-10-02 2.4288276 1.6139383 3.4076090 0.9999716
2024-10-01 2.2768437 1.5004543 3.2125441 0.9998894
2024-09-30 1.9654895 1.2593262 2.8263160 0.9981616
2024-09-29 1.5963914 0.9751174 2.3683148 0.9688008
2024-09-28 1.6440072 1.0176664 2.4181293 0.9787469
2024-09-27 1.5460651 0.9443767 2.2936535 0.9590425
2024-09-26 1.0744908 0.5874341 1.7061682 0.5698093
2024-09-25 1.0702215 0.5851001 1.6993892 0.5640958
2024-09-24 0.9910833 0.5277101 1.5980521 0.4503059
2024-09-23 0.9130511 0.4717868 1.4975590 0.3388396
2024-09-22 0.8372558 0.4179551 1.3997665 0.2400076
2024-09-21 0.8423804 0.4205133 1.4083342 0.2467152
2024-09-20 0.7781966 0.3731755 1.3295335 0.1759347
2024-09-19 0.8814624 0.4400228 1.4736733 0.2990623
2024-09-18 1.0040022 0.5187826 1.6467342 0.4670789
2024-09-17 1.1477947 0.6111524 1.8507382 0.6525441
2024-09-16 1.2157446 0.6473328 1.9603026 0.7217715
2024-09-15 1.4786293 0.8275776 2.3154961 0.9087968
2024-09-14 1.4383234 0.7863448 2.2838927 0.8831058
2024-09-13 1.4806689 0.8094955 2.3511326 0.9008784
2024-09-12 1.5128747 0.8271027 2.4022717 0.9126325
2024-09-11 1.4365647 0.7649102 2.3163595 0.8721518
2024-09-10 1.4830987 0.7896876 2.3913922 0.8921695
2024-09-09 1.5564183 0.8287272 2.5096149 0.9177240
2024-09-08 1.7949365 0.9813085 2.8501534 0.9713873
2024-09-07 2.3824722 1.3878779 3.6413982 0.9988277
2024-09-06 2.6497901 1.5436004 4.0499700 0.9996277
2024-09-05 2.6305370 1.4722916 4.1193546 0.9991443
2024-09-04 2.5791258 1.3732758 4.1586588 0.9978382
2024-09-03 2.4753800 1.2357008 4.1384654 0.9938977
2024-09-02 2.5667872 1.2308742 4.3853055 0.9931577
2024-09-01 2.9686192 1.4235683 5.0718276 0.9974623
2024-08-31 3.1649188 1.4472024 5.5432459 0.9973081
2024-08-30 4.2996687 2.0618583 7.3458994 0.9998427
2024-08-29 5.9871527 2.9887651 10.0096246 0.9999962
2024-08-28 7.8337281 3.9105688 13.0968226 0.9999997
2024-08-27 10.5381853 5.2606241 17.6182709 1.0000000

1.4.7 Quận 12

Figure 1.11: Diễn tiến Rt của Quận 12
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-10-31 1.2860118 0.7742631 1.925482 0.8350402
2024-10-30 1.1931614 0.6950605 1.823642 0.7340971
2024-10-29 1.2406765 0.7227398 1.896264 0.7811234
2024-10-28 1.2212918 0.6980738 1.888439 0.7546130
2024-10-27 1.2895600 0.7370950 1.994000 0.8134646
2024-10-26 1.4643528 0.8530395 2.238134 0.9185466
2024-10-25 1.5841984 0.9228539 2.421307 0.9533492
2024-10-24 1.8310870 1.0852182 2.768873 0.9877639
2024-10-23 2.1151703 1.2734707 3.166940 0.9976231
2024-10-22 2.2995305 1.3844676 3.442973 0.9990573
2024-10-21 2.5896553 1.5818287 3.841864 0.9998383
2024-10-20 2.3024778 1.3412782 3.519134 0.9983304
2024-10-19 2.2145247 1.2657922 3.424239 0.9967462
2024-10-18 2.0832902 1.1660017 3.262380 0.9927139
2024-10-17 2.2073017 1.2616636 3.413070 0.9966444
2024-10-16 2.0500238 1.1473827 3.210285 0.9916501
2024-10-15 2.1711329 1.2409900 3.357144 0.9960830
2024-10-14 2.1650289 1.2375011 3.347706 0.9959791
2024-10-13 1.8972237 1.0372299 3.012574 0.9808733
2024-10-12 1.9059524 1.0420019 3.026434 0.9815165
2024-10-11 1.7806153 0.9481027 2.871117 0.9641904
2024-10-10 1.3780213 0.6608148 2.354322 0.8035325
2024-10-09 1.1077498 0.4782477 1.997089 0.5656960
2024-10-08 1.1109987 0.4796504 2.002947 0.5688330
2024-10-07 0.9731873 0.3912718 1.815616 0.4213877
2024-10-06 0.9732625 0.3913020 1.815757 0.4214681
2024-10-05 1.1125119 0.4803037 2.005675 0.5702885
2024-10-04 1.1133585 0.4806692 2.007201 0.5711012
2024-10-03 1.1133836 0.4806800 2.007246 0.5711252
2024-10-02 1.2471965 0.5702976 2.184422 0.7005020
2024-10-01 1.0935427 0.4721141 1.971477 0.5517868
2024-09-30 1.0638202 0.4592820 1.917892 0.5217009
2024-09-29 1.1468089 0.5243941 2.008596 0.6137732
2024-09-28 0.9651736 0.4166935 1.740048 0.4134439
2024-09-27 0.9086821 0.3923044 1.638203 0.3473507
2024-09-26 0.8566032 0.3698205 1.544314 0.2856911
2024-09-25 0.8129353 0.3509677 1.465588 0.2348971
2024-09-24 0.6815913 0.2740350 1.271603 0.1140101
2024-09-23 0.7541364 0.3255826 1.359583 0.1703445
2024-09-22 0.8290555 0.3790970 1.452062 0.2450480
2024-09-21 0.7253731 0.3131646 1.307727 0.1413409
2024-09-20 0.8070314 0.3690262 1.413488 0.2187693
2024-09-19 0.7112982 0.3070881 1.282353 0.1279426
2024-09-18 0.6183448 0.2486067 1.153608 0.0663663
2024-09-17 0.5282263 0.1938497 1.027253 0.0302220
2024-09-16 0.6175264 0.2482776 1.152081 0.0658365
2024-09-15 0.7124306 0.3075770 1.284395 0.1289996
2024-09-14 0.8153424 0.3728265 1.428044 0.2286014
2024-09-13 0.8341628 0.3814324 1.461007 0.2512360
2024-09-12 0.9495103 0.4553271 1.622220 0.3934042
2024-09-11 1.0654025 0.5318451 1.781194 0.5424821
2024-09-10 1.2723955 0.6774970 2.051648 0.7705611
2024-09-09 1.1730796 0.6061474 1.924050 0.6703989
2024-09-08 1.0631006 0.5306960 1.777345 0.5397006
2024-09-07 1.1406425 0.5893866 1.870847 0.6363187
2024-09-06 1.0301458 0.5142451 1.722250 0.4988275
2024-09-05 1.1166359 0.5769821 1.831473 0.6094916
2024-09-04 1.1245800 0.5810869 1.844502 0.6185184
2024-09-03 1.2466914 0.6638107 2.010202 0.7493991
2024-09-02 1.3960688 0.7632438 2.216797 0.8624027
2024-09-01 1.3674437 0.7281062 2.204907 0.8358558
2024-08-31 1.3473126 0.6961761 2.209822 0.8119731
2024-08-30 1.4521325 0.7503380 2.381744 0.8681058
2024-08-29 1.4482435 0.7229579 2.421247 0.8539197
2024-08-28 1.4495878 0.6951337 2.476592 0.8406362
2024-08-27 1.2989135 0.5607786 2.341726 0.7218154
2024-08-26 2.0492445 1.0229755 3.426031 0.9783189
2024-08-25 2.4260795 1.2110901 4.056042 0.9929688
2024-08-24 2.9824251 1.4888159 4.986169 0.9984659
2024-08-23 4.5207490 2.4071085 7.289390 0.9999896
2024-08-22 6.0662757 3.2300363 9.781443 0.9999996
2024-08-21 8.5166007 4.5347312 13.732419 1.0000000
2024-08-20 12.4522231 6.6302844 20.078333 1.0000000

1.4.8 Tân Phú

Figure 1.12: Diễn tiến Rt của Tân Phú
Dates Estimate Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2024-11-01 1.1571607 0.7558958 1.6424976 0.7455091
2024-10-31 1.2161012 0.7943977 1.7261589 0.8158529
2024-10-30 1.1921966 0.7638629 1.7143436 0.7786525
2024-10-29 1.2781217 0.8189167 1.8379014 0.8611543
2024-10-28 1.2671069 0.7940892 1.8488663 0.8403217
2024-10-27 1.1940939 0.7189225 1.7878577 0.7496420
2024-10-26 1.4537425 0.8998895 2.1382737 0.9381040
2024-10-25 2.0011024 1.3071866 2.8404057 0.9990413
2024-10-24 2.2417511 1.4643862 3.1819874 0.9998149
2024-10-23 2.4235697 1.5684065 3.4618364 0.9999242
2024-10-22 2.8270727 1.8467377 4.0128048 0.9999957
2024-10-21 3.3811477 2.2467481 4.7436999 0.9999999
2024-10-20 3.6903302 2.4521976 5.1774782 1.0000000
2024-10-19 3.6557004 2.3880249 5.1889759 1.0000000
2024-10-18 3.5122947 2.2503935 5.0505763 0.9999997
2024-10-17 3.4254417 2.1714362 4.9606746 0.9999993
2024-10-16 3.1278913 1.9362140 4.6007375 0.9999921
2024-10-15 3.2402800 2.0306662 4.7279707 0.9999972
2024-10-14 2.7500378 1.6557024 4.1174955 0.9998898
2024-10-13 2.4097219 1.4037518 3.6830470 0.9989597
2024-10-12 2.4909005 1.4762655 3.7666078 0.9994794
2024-10-11 1.7482671 0.9308786 2.8189576 0.9596325
2024-10-10 1.5584689 0.8052836 2.5561538 0.9085158
2024-10-09 1.3703763 0.6840869 2.2910644 0.8131975
2024-10-08 1.0700602 0.4892997 1.8741735 0.5354092
2024-10-07 0.9059733 0.3911350 1.6333199 0.3441447
2024-10-06 0.7557404 0.3038468 1.4099389 0.1839097
2024-10-05 0.7218996 0.2902411 1.3468042 0.1504594
2024-10-04 0.6902557 0.2775186 1.2877680 0.1214882
2024-10-03 0.6594135 0.2651184 1.2302276 0.0958580
2024-10-02 0.6286892 0.2527657 1.1729072 0.0732621
2024-10-01 0.6841274 0.2953577 1.2333684 0.1037629
2024-09-30 0.6521376 0.2815467 1.1756960 0.0784592
2024-09-29 0.7024529 0.3212062 1.2303220 0.1086588
2024-09-28 0.4517260 0.1657755 0.8784814 0.0089217
2024-09-27 0.5130864 0.2062873 0.9572340 0.0176701
2024-09-26 0.5763551 0.2488292 1.0390728 0.0337642
2024-09-25 0.5712381 0.2466201 1.0298477 0.0315386
2024-09-24 0.7121497 0.3415035 1.2166938 0.1074262
2024-09-23 0.7133613 0.3420845 1.2187638 0.1085432
2024-09-22 0.7173398 0.3439923 1.2255610 0.1122515
2024-09-21 0.7253407 0.3478290 1.2392303 0.1198925
2024-09-20 0.7402625 0.3549846 1.2647240 0.1347740
2024-09-19 0.7663145 0.3674776 1.3092332 0.1625688
2024-09-18 0.9703525 0.5013953 1.5915429 0.4203685
2024-09-17 0.9602676 0.4793621 1.6054240 0.4068106
2024-09-16 1.2552119 0.6683475 2.0239409 0.7565904
2024-09-15 1.6392257 0.9174622 2.5669860 0.9534479
2024-09-14 1.8922555 1.0590810 2.9632243 0.9839442
2024-09-13 2.3668155 1.3528395 3.6597208 0.9982860
2024-09-12 2.4594027 1.3445784 3.9052498 0.9977080
2024-09-11 3.3787719 1.9312601 5.2244722 0.9999631
2024-09-10 3.6072833 1.9721354 5.7279526 0.9999442
2024-09-09 4.4936045 2.4566954 7.1353291 0.9999948
2024-09-08 5.7602020 3.1491560 9.1465408 0.9999997
2024-09-07 8.7583654 5.0061626 13.5427423 1.0000000

1.5 Rt - Hệ số lây nhiễm hiệu quả tại thời điểm

  • Hệ số lây nhiễm hiệu quả tại thời điểm (Rt - Effective reproduction number at time) là số ca thứ phát trung bình do một cá thể nhiễm bệnh có thể lây truyền cho người khác trong suốt thời kì lây nhiễm, tại một thời điểm nhất định, khi quần thể không hoàn toàn cảm nhiễm. (“Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, rt | PLOS computational biology,” n.d.)

  • Rt thể hiện mức độ lây nhiễm trong cộng đồng theo thời gian thực và giúp quan sát tình hình dịch bệnh có chiều hướng tăng, giảm, hoặc ổn định. Đồng thời, có thể dựa vào chỉ số này để đánh giá hiệu quả của các biện pháp kiểm soát đã được thực hiện. Nếu Rt duy trì > 1 thì số ca có thể tăng, dịch bệnh có thể bùng phát trở lại; nếu Rt duy trì < 1 thì số ca có thể giảm, dịch bệnh đang được kiểm soát.

  • Ước lượng Rt rất nhạy với phân phối thời gian thế hệ (generation interval).

  • Ước tính hệ số lây nhiễm Rt có thể không chính xác, do số ca bệnh được báo cáo có thể biến động bởi nhiều yếu tố như mức độ nghiêm trọng của bệnh, tần suất thực hiện xét nghiệm hoặc sự thay đổi trong quy trình báo cáo.

1.6 Phương pháp ước tính Rt

1.6.1 Công thức:

Uớc tính Rt theo phương pháp Cori: (Cori, Ferguson, Fraser, & Cauchemez, 2013a)

\[ R_t^i = \frac{I_t}{\sum_{s = 1}^{t} I_{t - s} w_s} \]

  • It: số ca nhiễm bệnh mới ghi nhận trong ngày t.
  • It-s: số người bị nhiễm bệnh s ngày trước đó.

  • ws: chỉ số lây nhiễm, mô tả mức độ lây nhiễm của một cá thể kể từ s ngày sau khi bị nhiễm bệnh. Mức độ lây nhiễm này phụ thuộc vào khoảng thời gian từ khi cá thể bị nhiễm bệnh, nhưng không phụ thuộc vào thời điểm t cụ thể. Chỉ số này thường được ước lượng dựa trên khoảng thời gian thế hệ (generation interval).

  • It-sws: thể hiện sự điều chỉnh số ca nhiễm s ngày trước bằng mức độ lây nhiễm tại thời điểm hiện tại t (là s ngày sau khi họ bị nhiễm bệnh).

1.6.2 Tiêu chuẩn để ước tính Rt

Tiêu chuẩn theo phương pháp Cori: (Cori et al., 2013a)

  • Tối thiểu sau Sliding Window size.

  • Tối thiểu sau trung bình của Serival Interval.

  • Tối thiểu 12 ca bệnh (ca bệnh ban đầu + 11) được quan sát kể từ khi bắt đầu dịch (trong một Sliding Window): để có được khoảng tin cậy trên là 0,3, sliding window phải bao gồm ít nhất 11 ca mắc mới.

1.7 Phương pháp đánh giá Rt

  • CDC Hoa Kỳ hiện đang sử dụng Rt để đánh giá mức độ lây nhiễm cho các tác nhân như COVID-19 (CDC, 2024), đậu mùa khỉ… Khuyến cáo của CDC sử dụng tỉ lệ phân phối khoảng tin cậy (KTC) của Rt để phân loại tình hình dịch bệnh như sau:
Phân độ Rt (CDC, 2024)

Số ca đang tăng
> 90% KTC của R> 1
Số ca có thể tăng
76 - 90% KTC của R> 1
Số ca ổn định
26 - 75% KTC của R> 1
Số ca có thể giảm
10 - 25% KTC của R> 1
Số ca đang giảm
< 10% KTC của R> 1

1.8 Thời gian thế hệ

  • Khoảng thời gian thế hệ (Generation interval): là khoảng thời gian từ khi ca bệnh đầu tiên bị nhiễm đến khi lây truyền cho các ca bệnh khác do ca đó gây ra. (Cori, Ferguson, Fraser, & Cauchemez, 2013b).

  • Khoảng thời gian nối tiếp (Serial interval): là khoảng thời gian từ khi một ca bệnh khởi phát triệu chứng đến khi các ca bệnh do ca đó lây khởi phát triệu chứng (Gostic et al., 2020).

Hình minh họa từ tác giả (Sender et al., 2022).